Titanium Media Note: This article comes from WeChat public account entrepreneurial states (ID: ichuangyebang), author | juny, editor 丨 sea waist, and titanium media authorized.

Within the atmosphere, Musk looked scorched.

Tesla's stock price declined, Twitter's revenue was not good, GROK's future was unknown, and he was busy fighting with Openai.

But outside the atmosphere, Musk's SpaceX is ruinging the near -track.

How scary is SpaceX's dominance?

In 2023, there were 223 carrier rockets worldwide, and SpaceX launched 98 times, accounting for 45%of the global total, slightly smaller than other family sums.

A total of 2945 satellites in the world and 2,514 SpaceX launch, accounting for 87%of the global total, 6.7 times the total family of other families.

The global tracking quality has a total of 1492 tons and a total of 1,286 tons of SPACEX, accounting for 86%of the global total, 6.1 times the total family of other families.

According to Musk's plan, in 2024 available in only Falcon (including heavy Falcon), SpaceX will launch 144 times, and the quality of tracks accounts for 90%of the total global total, which is 10 times that of other families.

Once the star ship is mature, the quality of SpaceX will account for 99%of the world's global, which is 100 times the sum of other families.

This is the terrorist dominance that NASA dare not imagine.

Looking around, there is no one who can fight.

Prior to the rise of SpaceX, the commercial launch market was ruled by national teams that are not bad. The launch costs of each rocket were at least based on "billion dollars".For example, the single manufacturing cost of the "Saturn 5" Rockets used by the United States for the moon is about 185 million US dollars. Before 2005, the single launch cost of the "Hercules 4" rocket produced by Lockheed Martin was 2.5-Between 350 million US dollars.

But obviously, such high costs are unsustainable.To achieve market -oriented development, commercial aerospace companies must maximize the product R & D cycle and manufacturing costs.

SpaceX forms a price advantage through cost control, so as to obtain a large number of market orders.The cost of rocket launch is mainly divided into two parts: manufacturing and launch costs.In terms of manufacturing, Musk abandoned the "high -precision" and customized thinking inherent in traditional aerospace.This model has the same work with the manufacturing of Tesla cars. It is to maximize production and assembly efficiency by using standardized components and modular design.

Musk once said, "The lowest cost of making anything is the cost of raw material. If you have a wand to re -arrange the atom, the key is how to transform the atom into the shape of the rocket." According to his own estimation, the RocketThe cost of raw materials accounts for only 2%of the rocket manufacturing cost, so the efficiency of improving the engineering design and manufacturing process is the core of cost compression that reduce costs.After the operation, the cost of a new Falcon 9 rocket can be reduced to about 50 million US dollars, which is about 30-50%lower than the cost of the same type of products in the market.

The cost of light manufacturing is not enough, and Musk also solves the problem of disposable launch costs.He has specially formed a technical tie team, and has developed rockets that can be recycled repeatedly after many years.The Falcon 9 Rockets began to recover for the first time in January 2015Lucknow Investment. By March 2017, the first -class rocket was officially achieved.

According to the quotation of SpaceX in 2022, the price of non -recovered launch standards for the one -time use of the Falcon 9 Rockets 9 is $ 67 million, and the reactive rocket launch price is $ 50 million (the load of the reused rocket is slightly lower).According to the calculations of industry insiders, the cost of rockets for SpaceX is only about $ 20 million.In other words, the gross profit launched by the Falcon Rockets at a time is around $ 12 million, while the gross profit of reuse rockets is at least $ 30 million.

For buyers like NASA, the ultimate goal is to allow the Rockets to successfully complete the launch task.Rockets are at a price of hundreds of millions of dollars, and the launch cost of $ 67 million in SpaceX has a price advantage.With the rocket technology in recent years, the rocket technology has matured and stable, and the launch orders have continuously flooded to SpaceX.

Summary table of the price of mainstream carrier -carring rocket launch services, data from India Great Wall Industry Group Co., LtdJaipur Stock. and Beijing Aerospace Long March Science and Technology Information Research Institute

No one doesn't like cheap.Under the low -cost offensive of SpaceX, the national teams of various countries were beaten to defeat for a army, a thousand miles.

According to the country, the United States launched a total of 116 rockets in 2023, of which SpaceX accounted for 98 of them.The former national team-ULA (joint launch alliance, Boeing and Lockheed Martin jointly established) only launched three times.

India ranks second with 67 launch, Russia ranked third with 19 launch.Except for the United States, China, and Russia, the number of rail -level launch in the rest of the country is only individual.

Once in the aerospace field has created countless glorious European countries and Japan, most of the launch business has been snatched by SpaceX.

It is particularly noteworthy about the amazing development speed of SpaceX in recent years.

If compared with India.In 2021, SpaceX's annual launch was only 32, which was 23 times less than that of that year. In 2022, the number of launch rose to 61 times, and the gap with India was reduced to 3 times.Last year, the launch of SpaceX not only surpassed India for the first time, but also surpassed 36 times.According to the 144 launch plan of SpaceX in 2024, India's leading advantages will be further expanded.

What is more scary than the launch is the actual quality of SpaceX, which is currently far ahead of all countries, regions and enterprises.

2021年，SpaceX全年入轨质量仅为372.2吨，不足全球总入轨质量的50%；一年之后的2022年，其入轨质量已超全球的三分之二；到了2023年，这个数字More than 86%.

In front of SpaceX, all national teams and other commercial aerospace companies on the planet can say "there is no one who can fight."

It is estimated that in the past three years, SpaceX's revenue has doubled continuously, from US $ 2.3 billion in 2021 to $ 8.7 billion, and even the first quarterly profit for the first time in 2023.

In addition to launching satellites for the world, the star chain has also made important contributions.

As we all know, Musk's original intention of founding SpaceX is not to make rockets to make money by making orders. In the end, he was still the ultimate goal of sending humans to Mars.

Since last year, the SpaceX's star ship plan has also officially launched the launch test, and it has been exploded twice so far.In the face of the R & D and manufacturing costs of up to $ 5 billion in star ships, tens of millions of rocket launch orders undoubtedly appeared to be a cup of money on the road to Musk's dream.Ahmedabad Stock

Therefore, SpaceX needs to find a business that can make money quickly to support its exploration of alien colonies.As a result, the satellite Internet entered Musk's sight.

In 2015, Musk first announced the launch of a space high -speed Internet plan: Starlink.There is a very clear commercial landing scenario of the Star Chain Program. According to a survey report released by the International Power Federation in 2015, more than half of the world's population and about 4 billion people are still in a state of not accessing the Internet.It is difficult to cover mobile networks and fiber broadband, which is undoubtedly a blue ocean market full of opportunities for SpaceX.

The goal of the star chain is to build a global coverage, large -capacity, and low latency sky -based communication system. It is intended to use 42,000 satellites to replace traditional communication facilities on the ground.Satellite broadband services.

In February 2018, SpaceX successfully launched a Falcon No. 9 Lairent Rockets in California, sending two small experimental communication satellites into the orbit, and the star chain plan kicked off.Since then, SpaceX has continuously accelerated the launch of the star chain. As of March 2024, the number of star chain projects has exceeded 5504 in the rail satellite.

At present, the satellite Internet has formed a complete industrial chain consisting of satellite manufacturing, rocket launch, ground equipment and operating services. Among them, ground equipment and operation services have become the core source of revenue from the star chain.Whether you are a personal user or an institution, if you want to use the star chain service, it is composed of two parts: "hardware equipment+subscription service". For different user groups and application scenarios, the Star Chain has launched different package plans.

The current plans include: ordinary version of the home version of Starlink Residential, with hardware costs 499 US dollars and a monthly subscription fee of $ 99; the high-end version of Starlink Business, a hardware cost of $ 2,500, a monthly subscription fee of $ 499, can guarantee the upward speed between 150-500MbpsAnd 20-40 millisecond delays; Starlink RV for RV camping scenes, the hardware cost is $ 599, and the monthly subscription fee is $ 135; Starlink Maritime, which is for maritime application scenarios such as cruise ships.Serve Starshield.

In the past two years, while personal users have grown rapidly, the commercial users of the Star Chain have begun to volume.

In the air, Hawaiian Airlines, Qatar Airlines, New Zealand Airlines, and Baltic Airlines have announced that they will introduce star chain services. Passengers can watch videos smoothly in the air (about 4G network speed).

At sea, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian cruise ships, MSC Mediterranean, Carnival, Ge Shida, Yinhai and other cruise companies have successively cooperated with the star chain to provide passengers in the vast ocean.

On the ground, railway companies such as Brightline between Miami and West Palm Beach, Florida have begun deployment of star chains, and OEMs and other main plants such as BMW are also planning to deploy star chains.

Not long ago, Musk announced that the Star Chain had supported directly connecting with the phone, taking the first step in the satellite Internet.

According to the plan, Star Chain will first provide satellite SMS services in 2024, and expand satellite communication services to voice calls and network data in 2025.The currently signed operators include T-Mobile, Singapore Telecom, Rogers, One New Zealand, KDDI, etc., covering multiple countries.

Compared with Huawei, which also supports satellite communications, the star chain is characterized by the need to modify the mobile phone and support the vast majority of mobile phones. Huawei's mobile phones supporting satellite communication are currently only a few models such as Mate60 Pro and Nova12.Take Huawei Mate 60 Pro as an example. From the previous disassembly videos of many institutions, it can be seen that the machine has two special satellite communication baseband chips.

In 2023, the development speed of the star chain is particularly noticeable.As of the end of 2023, the number of active customers of Star Chain has exceeded 2.3 million, while the number was only 1 million last year.According to the Payload website estimation, the revenue of the star chain in 2022 was only $ 1.9 billion, and last year it doubled more than $ 4.2 billion, which has contributed about half of SpaceX's annual revenue.

Star Chain also achieved positive cash flow in 2023 and reached quarterly profit, becoming an important milestone in the business model.

According to predictions, SpaceX's annual revenue in 2024 will reach about $ 13.3 billion.Among them, rocket launch revenue will achieve an increase of more than 55%year -on -year, revenue reached US $ 5.47 billion, and the growth rate of the star chain will exceed 63%, and the revenue is expected to exceed $ 6.9 billion.

The significance of the star chain is more than half of the income for SpaceX.

Looking back at the whole year of 2023, in the 98 launch of SpaceX throughout the year, the number of launch related to the star chain reached more than 60 times, accounting for nearly two -thirds.

In other words, nearly two -thirds of the launch tasks of SpaceX are unable to snatch.

At present, there are more than 5,500 satellites in the orbit satellite. According to the planning of 42,000 satellites according to the star chain, 10%to 15%of satellite updates are replaced by 10%.Essence

Such a large amount of launching tasks not only allowed SpaceX to dilute the cost of Rocket Rockets research and development and production, but also allowed the rockets of various models of SpaceX to continuously trial and error, improve, iterate, thereby further reducing costs and improving performance.

Driven by this self -loop growth flywheel, the valuation of SpaceX has risen again in the cold winter of technology.According to a report from Bloomberg last December, SpaceX's latest valuation was US $ 180 billion, second only to byte beating among the global unicorns.

In the current field of commercial aerospace, no one wants to challenge SpaceX.The Blue Origin (Blue Origin), the ULA (Joint Launch Alliance) co -supported by Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the joint venture company of the European Space Agency, and the Russian Space Agency.Competition.

However, with the current cost and technical advantages, SpaceX has been indisputable to become the preferred company to provide various space services.SpaceX is creating a closed -loop ecosystem composed of rocket manufacturing and launch, satellite Internet, space travel, and deep space detection.When the flywheel of technology and business models starts, the gap with other institutions is getting farther.

If you want to catch up with SpaceX, the challenge is very great.

The first is technology.SpaceX can achieve the stable launch of recyclable rockets in 2018. The nearest competitors are expected to complete the first flight in 2024 under optimistic situations, and the stable launch is the earliest to wait until 2025.

According to industry insiders, the second -generation Raptor engine used in the star ship can provide 200 tons of thrust in the diameter of only 1.3 meters.Similar products of competitors have a diameter of 1.5 meters in diameter, but thrust is only 80 tons.The spray mouth is small, and the single -machine thrust is large, which means that he can connect more engines, and get a greater overall thrust.

There are many such technical gaps, and it is not easy to chase.

The technology will eventually spread. Pure technology is difficult to become a long -term moat. What is more difficult than catching up with technology is how to copy a star chain and how to transmit a large number of star chains as a driving force to provide a diluted research and development cost for the rocket to provide a diluted research and development cost and provide it with the rocket.Ieralize opportunities.

The success of the star chain is based on real needs. At present, this demand is mainly in Western countries.

The core pain point solved by the star chain is low density, basic communication needs in remote areas.Operators in Western countries do not have "social responsibility". Where can I make money to build a base station, this has the market space of the star chain.At the same time, such areas must have basic payment capabilities and should not be too poor.

At the same time, it meets the basic communication needs of low density of residence. There is no state -owned enterprise without cost solution, and countries and regions with ability to pay are basically concentrated in Western Europe and North America.

The demand scene of RVs, private yachts (either a top rich, or a small yacht that ordinary people can afford) is also concentrated in western developed countries.

After accessing airlines and cruise companies, the target customers of the Star Chain include billions of aviation passengers in the entire Western world, tens of millions of large cruise passengers, hundreds of millions of outdoor travel and private sailing tourists, and 100 million yuanLive in remote areas, but resident residents who have the ability to pay.

Outside of Star Chain, SpaceX's service targets are satellite Internet companies and aerospace ecosystems in the Western world.

Star chain competitors, oneweb from the United Kingdom, more than half of the satellites were launched by SpaceX, Globalstar, a satellite communication supplier of Apple mobile phones, all of which were launched by SpaceX.

Last month, the Nova-C lunar landing cabin developed by Intuitive Machines was also launched by SpaceX.Starlab Space has scheduled subsequent star ship launch to launch a large -scale single commercial space station developed by it.

In a live broadcast, someone asked Musk that the Soviet N1 rocket was not successful. Why do you believe that the star ship that also uses multiple mobilization mechanisms (technically difficult and the previous launch failed) can succeed?

Musk's answer is: If the Soviets can iterate, N1 can have money to experiment 10 times and succeed.But the N1 is too expensive, and the Soviets feel that the cost of continuing to try is too high, so they give up.

In an industry with technical barriers, relying on large local markets, relying on low prices and flexible business strategies to get enough orders, iterates in the process of production, the technology is getting stronger and lower, the cost is getting lower and lower, and then take it.To more orders, the two -way flywheel of business and technology was launched, and finally achieved counterattacks in the local area.

Even if the competitors have returned to their own country, they have been locked in the upper limit by tariff barriers and political intervention, and they are no longer able to compete in the global market.

This was originally exclusive to the standard script of Indian enterprises, but it seems that it does not seem to be established under the pattern of commercial aerospace today.