2024.07.22

Guide: 63 countries and regions around the world have reached the peak of population and have begun to decline.

Author | First Financial Qian Xiaoyan

The weak population growth is no longer the phenomenon of individual countries, but a problem that needs to face and think about the world.

According to the "World Population Outlook of 2024" released by the United Nations recently, the global population is expected to reach a peak of about 10.3 billion in 2084, and the global population will slowly fall.10.3 billion, it may be the maximum value of the global population in the foreseeable future period.Guoabong Wealth Management

It is worth noting that in the past ten years, the United Nations has continued to reach the peak of population in advance, showing that the growth of the world population growth is higher than expected.However, the world is not "flat". While most countries face the slowdown of population growth, some countries with low economic development are still suffering from the "population explosion."

The United Nations has previously predicted that by 2050, more than half of the global population will be concentrated in 8 countries, namely India, Pakistan and the Philippines in Asia, and Africa's Egypt, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nigeria, and Congo Democratic countries.

From the current point of view, Africa is the main force of the world's population growth.However, Zhu Ming, director of the Regional Cooperation of the Mumbai International Institute of International Issues, told the First Financial Reporter that the population problem in Africa is greater than the opportunity. Many countries have insufficient employment positions, high unemployment rates, and human resources are not properly applied."It has not yet appeared.

Population Dafeng again

Just 10 years ago, the United Nations also stated that when predicting the global population, the population was a small probability event in this century, about 30%.However, by 2022, the United Nations predicts that the global population will reach the peak in 2086, and this year's forecast will be further advanced for two years.

For the global population earlier, the United Nations explained that the reason for the reduction of the fertility level of several large population countries; the average number of children in the world decreased by one by one in the 1990s; in countries and regions with more than half of the world, women's average fertility ratesIt is less than 2.1; nearly 1/5 countries and regions are currently very low in fertility, with a total fertility rate of less than 1.4.The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children who have given birth to women during the age of childbearing age.

In fact, the population of many countries in the world has reached its peak.According to the report, as of 2024, this includes 63 countries and regions including India, Japan, Russia, and Germany. The population of the above countries and regions is expected to decrease by 14%in the next 30 years.

In East Asia, Japan's total fertility rate in 2023 fell to the lowest value of 1.26.According to data released by the Japanese government on July 5th, the number of families in the country's breds in the country in 2023 decreased to 9.835 million households, accounting for 18.1%of the total number of all families.The lowest value since relevant statistics.

In 2023, the Korean newborn was 2.997 million, with a total fertility rate of 0.72, and the lowest value since the dual -dual creation has the minimum value.On June 19th, the South Korean President Yin Xiyue officially announced that he would "enter the country's emergency state" from that day when he hosted a meeting of the 2024 Social Committee of the 2024 Low Breeding Old Aging.

Immigration will become an important way for Western countries to maintain the population scale.It is expected that by the second half of this century, immigrants will become the main driving factor for population growth in the United States, Canada, and Australia.

However, many emerging economies are actually on the way to Dafeng. The population in 48 countries and regions such as Vietnam, Turkey and Brazil is expected to reach Fengfeng by 2054.Although the population is still growing, these countries have also begun to worry about population problems.

For example, Vietnam, at the end of 2023, officially announced that the population exceeded 100 million, becoming the 15th country in the world with the third population of Southeast Asia.Although the population is still rising slightly, in fact, the Vietnamese people have not been so enthusiastic about "giving birth", and Vietnam has become one of the fastest -aged countries in the world.

The total fertility rate of Vietnam in 2023 was 1.95.It is generally believed that if the total fertility rate is lower than 2.1 for a long time, the population will be replaced, and the population will enter the decline channel.

Vietnam has a large number of young labor. Under the guidance of government policies, the global labor -intensive industries such as textile industry and shoe industry have entered Vietnam, which has promoted the rapid development of Vietnam's economy, making it a bright performance in the region and even the world in recent years.Emerging economies.Therefore, how long it can last for Vietnam's "demographic dividends" has always been the topic of Vietnam itself and neighboring countries.

Ruan Qinglong, the population and development expert of the National Economic University of Vietnam, said without worry that in the history of each country, the golden period of population will only appear once.If there is no proper strategy, seize and make good use of this unique opportunity, you will miss the opportunity and cannot help from benefiting from it.

The population of the remaining 126 countries and regions is expected to reach its peak in the second half of this century. India, the world's largest population, is the camp.

The Indian population will reach approximately 1.7 billion peaks in the early 1960s.Clare Menozzi, a UN Population Affairs Officer, said that the Indian population would fall to about 1.5 billion at the end of the 21st century, but it will still stand in the throne of "the world's most populous country".Surat Wealth Management

Although the base is huge, India's labor population will reach its peak in 2049, and the main reason for this phenomenon is still an old problem with the decline in fertility.India's total fertility rate has been reduced from 2.1 in 2020 to 1.962 in 2024.Lucknow Stock

In this regard, J. P. Nadda, Minister of Health and Family Welfare, explained that India's population policy was introduced on July 11 that Indians began to favor "small families" and only had two children on average.This is a major change in the past ten years.

Population growth and reduction of their own troubles

At the same time as the fertility rate is reduced, most of the national residents are expected to increase their life expectancy.According to the United Nations report, by the end of the 1970s, the population of 65 and over the world will populate more than 18 years old.Such a population structure will inevitably bring significant challenges to the supply of social labor and the burden of pension.Hyderabad Stocks

How to lay up an aging society in advance has become a question that many countries are thinking. The usual path includes the development potential of the whole society's labor participation rate and the excavation of the silver -haired economy.In addition, it can accelerate the development of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and big data, improve the efficiency of social labor production, and reduce the impact of insufficient labor supply.

Of course, insufficient labor force is not the distress of all countries.In low -income and low -income countries, population growth will still remain high.For example, the total population of Angola, the Republic of China, the Democratic Republic of China, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Niger, and Somalia will be doubled in the next 30 years.

According to the latest estimates, the population of Africa is currently close to 1.5 billion, accounting for about one -sixth of the world's total population.Since the 1980s, Africa is the fastest population growth area in the world. The current annual growth rate of Africa's population is as high as 2.5%, which is more than three times the global average growth rate.

According to research by the University of Toronto's Global Urban Institute (GCI), it is expected that by 2100, the three major cities with the largest number of global population will be located in Africa, namely Nigeria's Lagos, the Golden Shasa and Tanzania of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Damasaham.Bangalore Wealth Management

Zhu Ming told the First Financial reporter that many African countries are currently undergoing low -quality urbanization.It will continue to trouble these African cities.

A Nigerian scholar also said: "Housing, roads, hospitals, and schools are working over loads, and everything we have." At the same time, more African population poured into cities, and local agriculture could not increase production accordinglyIt may trigger a food crisis, all of which are considered potential risks and challenges caused by the surge in African population.

At the same time, if the global development of gaps cannot be effectively made up, more and more new population in the world will live in poor areas, and social wealth will be further concentrated.A series of global challenges faced by the international community today will become more prominent.

Navid Hanif, the UN Economic Development Assistant Secretary -General, said that for those countries that have faced serious economic, social and environmental challenges, such a trend of population changes will further force them to strengthen poverty and hungerInvestment and hard work.The international community needs to attach importance to this issue, and it is necessary to act as soon as possible.